The Breaking of an Old Strategy

You just punted and you're down 8 with 3:41 to go. The opponent is at mid-field and you have 3 timeout's left. Do you call them before the 2 minute warning, or do you let 'em ride until after the 2 minute warning is over? That's the question I was asking myself all day long, for no good reason. That scenario is what happened in Houston last night vs. Baltimore, but they only had 1 timeout left. As I was watching the game, I started up the conversation with a couple of buddies and this is what we got out of it. Traditionally, teams use their TO's after the 2 minute warning so you basically lineup 4 straight TO opportunities (2 in Houston's case) if need be. I kept asking myself why a team would do that, instead of using them before the 2 minute warning. My friend Jeff said, "It's because if you don't stop them after the 2 minute warning, and you used your timeouts, the game is over," and that's the truth, the team could just take Victory Formation, and walk off the field. But, as we all know, sports are crazy, they aren't perfect, things DONT WORK OUT! It's a game mostly decided by humans = error. Teams make mistakes every second of every game, I wanna bank on that. This why in the next few years we are going to see teams shift to this outlook on the TO scenario, just like Houston did this Monday Night.

You call the TO's before the 2 minute warning because that gives you the most possible clock time with the ball in your hands; which in turn gives you control of the clock (killing it with passing plays/spikes). When you're on D, the other team is controlling what is going on with the clock (running the ball to burn it up), and you don't want that to be within 2 minutes. So if you call the TO's before the 2 minute warning, and you stop them before the 2 minute warning, you basically give yourself a free offensive TO, instead of watching the other team run down the clock to 1:58.

Houston only had 1 TO but it is still a great example of how much game time you can create for yourself by this different strategy (with 3 TO's you could create even more game time). It was 2-6 with 3:03 left, Houston only has 1 TO left, Baltimore ball, 4 yd run, 3-2 2:58, TO Houston. So, what does Baltimore do? Run the ball so that way they can kill most of the clock and possibly burn up the 2 minute warning on the punt? NOPE! They throw it trying to win the game right there, and Houston gets the stop! So now instead of being to within 2 minutes with no TO's left, they have the ball with 2:42 seconds on their own 5, good thing they saved those :42 seconds because they scored with only :21 left, and got the 2pt conversion to tie it. Houston had great clock management, and once they got the ball in their hands; they ran off 12 plays out of Shotgun with Schaub in 2:21 and even got an extra TO from Baltimore!

Like most things in life, it's still a contextual answer, it depends on what's going on in the moment. If the opponent you're facing is running the ball really well on you late, you probably want to wait until after the 2 minute warning...assuming your team won't get the stop like Houston; and you will need those TO's to try to get the ball back after the 2 minute warning. Right now, the status quo is to call your TO's after the 2 minute warning. Games like this will prove that calling your TO's before the 2 minute warning is your best bet.